Sunday, August 12, 2012

Romney Can't Read The Electoral Map

I'm still puzzled by Romney's selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate.  While I already have a problem with the lack of politically fiery dynamism on that ticket, I'm even more amazed that Romney would fore go Marco Rubio, who could carry Florida with its 27 electoral votes, in favor of Ryan who, if he can even carry Wisconsin at all, yields only 10 electoral votes.

Let's face it; every four years Republicans always carry a plurality of states.  That was so when Obama defeated McCain in 2008, and it will be true this year as well.  The problem in a close election is the electoral vote count and that's where Obama starts off with a huge advantage.  Look at that electoral map!  Obama has socialist California with its 55 electoral votes.  Same for New York (31), Illinois (21), Washington state (11), Oregon (7), Minnesota (10), Michigan (17), Massachusetts (12) New Jersey (15), Maryland (10) and all of those smaller liberal leaning Northeastern states.

This Obama advantage in solid Democratic states places an even greater burden on Romney to win the swing states of Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Florida.  The other swing state, Ohio, will almost certainly go to Obama since he has rained billions of federal largess on that state to buy a victory there.  When Romney chose Ryan over Rubio he just surrendered 27 electoral votes in order to "possibly" win 10 in Wisconsin when there is no doubt that every electoral vote will prove to be critical.

Finally, with respect to the popular vote, Obama, by granting amnesty to illegals, and by failing to enforce immigration laws, will almost certainly get the vast majority of the Hispanic vote.  But Rubio would have pulled in ten or twenty percent of the Hispanic vote, a gain that Romney certainly won't get with this strictly WASP ticket.



Anonymous said...

It seems very logical to me!!
I do get a smacking of comments from small business owners in Virginia that they will vote Romney. They do not want to pay Health Insurance for employees. Obama care is one of the front line issues of discontent among some people in Virginia.
Feel Free to pass this information to Prez Obama.
My personal belief is that Corporations need stronger regulations. There is a lot of Double Dipping in government and corporations that carries over in wage determination for employees and the retail prices of food and commodities for which the general public and consumers absorb the cost. Anytime, you can find a food product, same brand, type, and size, in a dollar tree for $1.00 and go to a grocery store in the same area with a price tag of $2.69. There is serious Double Dipping Issues!!

A Modest Scribler said...

Thanks for your comments, anon. I personally hope Virginia goes to Romney/Ryan but the polls are showing it dead even.
Re, corporations, you may want to read my blog "Corporate Greed and the .99 Egg Slicer". You can search for it on the front page of my blog.
Thanks for the comments.