The other day I was reviewing the 2016 Presidential electoral map. In that year Trump pulled out the first 21st century miracle by capturing Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. For 2020 that presents a problem for Trump. In 2016 the Blacks of Philadelphia slept, not rallying for Honky Hillary. Accordingly Pittsburgh and western Pennsylvania was able to offset Philadelphia's traditionally heavy Democratic turnout. So PA went red. Pennsylvania will not go red again. Philadelphia is going to be geared up for free healthcare, student loan forgiveness and for slavery reparations. So PA goes back to blue.
In Michigan Trump's promise to bring more auto jobs has largely gone unfulfilled. Despite Trump's jawboning, the big three are still turning out cars in Mexico, and expanding operations in the south. So don't look for Michigan to go red again.
That leaves Wisconsin, who only recently tossed their Republican governor, with Democrats threatening to take the statehouse next year. And the Wisconsin folks are no longer throwing a snippy fit about Hillary ignoring them. Look for Wisconsin to go back to blue.
Those three states represent 46 electoral votes. Trump won with a whopping 306 in 2016. Take those 46 electoral votes away and Trump is sitting at exactly 270, assuming he wins every swing state and sweeps the south.
Since 270 is needed to win everything's cool, right?
Well, except the Democrats, absent Hillary, pretty much have 278 in their pocket. That trumps Trump's 270. Even worse, Iowa and my home state of Arizona is showing signs of turning purple.....maybe even Blue.
The rest of the states are so solidly blue even Hillary couldn't lose them in 2016. So I just don't see where Trump steals enough blue states in 2020 to compensate for those 46 electoral gifts Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania gave him in 2016.