Sunday, August 12, 2012
Romney Can't Read The Electoral Map
I'm still puzzled by Romney's selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate. While I already have a problem with the lack of politically fiery dynamism on that ticket, I'm even more amazed that Romney would fore go Marco Rubio, who could carry Florida with its 27 electoral votes, in favor of Ryan who, if he can even carry Wisconsin at all, yields only 10 electoral votes.
Let's face it; every four years Republicans always carry a plurality of states. That was so when Obama defeated McCain in 2008, and it will be true this year as well. The problem in a close election is the electoral vote count and that's where Obama starts off with a huge advantage. Look at that electoral map! Obama has socialist California with its 55 electoral votes. Same for New York (31), Illinois (21), Washington state (11), Oregon (7), Minnesota (10), Michigan (17), Massachusetts (12) New Jersey (15), Maryland (10) and all of those smaller liberal leaning Northeastern states.
This Obama advantage in solid Democratic states places an even greater burden on Romney to win the swing states of Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Florida. The other swing state, Ohio, will almost certainly go to Obama since he has rained billions of federal largess on that state to buy a victory there. When Romney chose Ryan over Rubio he just surrendered 27 electoral votes in order to "possibly" win 10 in Wisconsin when there is no doubt that every electoral vote will prove to be critical.
Finally, with respect to the popular vote, Obama, by granting amnesty to illegals, and by failing to enforce immigration laws, will almost certainly get the vast majority of the Hispanic vote. But Rubio would have pulled in ten or twenty percent of the Hispanic vote, a gain that Romney certainly won't get with this strictly WASP ticket.